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September 19, 2009

Off to GridWeek in Washington D.C.

It took all week but I managed to get the full draft of part one of the book to reviewers. I think it turned out pretty good, but I'll know a lot more once the reviews come in. Good writing is based on good ideas followed by a lot of editing. Strong reviewers, accepting authors, and detail-oriented editors make a great team. Thanks to those of you who volunteered to review Part One: Energy meets IT and Telecom.

Part Two of the book will get into smart grid architectural details. If you have deep technical expertise and are interested in reading a draft of part two, let me know. It should be ready by mid-October.

With any luck, I'll start filling the pages of this blog again next week. Thanks for hanging in there. --JCB

September 15, 2009

Boulder SmartGridCity update

Xcel Energy says that it has completed its infrastructure deployment for its project in Boulder, CO. To date, the it involves approximately 200 miles of new fiber optic cable, 4,600 residential and small business transformers, and 16,000 smart meters, 20 software applications, and 95 application interfaces. Software integration and testing continues. The Boulder implementation is the most comprehensive city-wide smart grid project in the U.S. Current functionality includes:
  • switching power through fully automated substations
  • re-routing power around bottlenecked lines
  • detecting power outages
  • proactively identifying outage risks
  • automating three of four distribution substations
  • automating four computer monitored power feeders
  • monitoring 23 feeders for voltage irregularities

A grid monitoring system, installed by CURRENT Group has helped avert four power outages by alerting Xcel operators to transformers that were ready to fail. Not a bad start to Xcel's "grid optimization" efforts.

I live in Boulder and have applied to be a beta tester for Xcel's next phase of development which will include demand response programs, in-home displays, and other energy-saving devices. We'll see what happens. --JCB

September 11, 2009

Smart Grid Book, part one

Greetings on a fine Friday afternoon! TGIF. I can now admit to being stuck in the Rocky Mountains the past week without access to the internet. My trip was part work and part vacation. The vacation activity was hiking in the wilderness around Crested Butte Colorado. That area is pristine and spectacular. It was a great way to recharge my batteries. Hitting the hot springs on the drive home was icing on the cake.

My work activity was focused on finishing Part One of my book. I will have the first five chapters ready for reviewers during the coming week. If the editing goes smoothly, I will start posting to the blog again. My topical coverage will shift toward technical architecture, covering both networks and applications. The week of Sep 21, I am attending Grid Week in Washington D.C. My interviews there will be focused on Smart Grid architecture, the subject of the next two sections of the book. My blog posts that week will be opportunistic covering both product announcements and research findings.

Let me know if you are attending Grid Week and would like to schedule a meeting. --JCB

September 04, 2009

Grid Interconnects

The U.S. bulk power system has evolved into three major interconnected systems (power grids), within which regional transmission organizations and independent system operators exist to operate transmission systems. They also manage organized competitive markets for the purchase and sale of wholesale electricity. The major networks consist of extra-high-voltage connections between individual utilities designed to permit the transfer of electrical energy from one part of the network to another. These transfers are restricted, on occasion, because of a lack of contractual arrangements or because of limited transmission capability. The three networks are:
  • the Eastern Interconnected System,
  • the Western Interconnected System, and
  • the Texas Interconnected System.

The Texas Interconnected System is not interconnected with the other two networks (except by certain direct current lines). The other two networks have limited interconnections to each other. Both the Western and the Texas Interconnect are linked with different parts of Mexico. The Eastern and Western Interconnects are completely integrated with most of Canada or have links to the Quebec Province power grid. Virtually all U.S. utilities are interconnected with at least one other utility by these three major grids. The exceptions are in Alaska and Hawaii. The bulk power system makes it possible for utilities to engage in wholesale (sales for resale) electric power trade. Wholesale trade has historically played an important role, allowing utilities to reduce power costs, increase power supply options, and improve reliability. Historically, most wholesale trade was between interconnected utilities within the continental United States. With open access and deregulation of wholesale markets cross-border trade has become more prominent in meeting domestic electricity requirements. U.S. international trade is mostly imports. Normally, most imports are from Canada, with a small portion coming from Mexico.

Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA)

September 03, 2009

Utility-Scale Energy Storage

Today's large-scale storage solutions include pumped hydro, compressed air, flywheels, sodium-sulfur batteries, supercapacitors, and flow batteries. No matter what technology is used, the idea behind storage systems is to use low-cost off-peak power to charge the system (store the power) and discharge the system (drawing on its stored power) during peak demand when more electricity is needed. Storage systems have the effect of smoothing out utility load profiles.

While most storage systems remain very expensive, pumped hydro and compressed air are cost-effective today. Pumped hydro is well established and makes hydroelectric power one of the most dispatchable of all fuel sources. With a storage option, hydroelectric production can be turned up or down in minutes (see post). Compressed air energy storage (CAES) is in an earlier stage of development but is starting to see commercial pilots and deployments. Both have limitations in terms of location. Hydro needs a vertical drop and plenty of land for the storage reservoir. Compressed air needs favorable geological strata deep underground (see post).

The smart grid will provide the communication and software solutions to make large-scale storage systems work. Their charge and discharge cycles need to be tightly managed to match charging with periods of excess power and to match discharging with optimal periods of demand. In a dynamic pricing environment, this is no easy task.

Utility-scale storage is a natural match for utility-scale renewable generation.


Wind Power with Integrated CAES

In the case of wind power, excess power generated when the wind is blowing (often at night, off-peak) can be used to charge any of these systems (CAES is illustrated above). An effective storage system can make wind dispatchable, greatly increasing its value to utilities. The combination of dynamic pricing and intermittent generation requires sophisticated modeling tools. To meet future needs, advanced wind forecast models are under development at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).

Utility-scale storage systems promise to increase efficiency by better matching supply with demand. They will increase reliability by smoothing out power fluctuations. And they will increase stability by providing ride-through during short power disruptions.

Energy Smart: Pumped Hydro

Pumped-hydro converts electricity into potential energy in the form of water stored at a high elevation. During “charging,” low-cost off-peak power is used to pump water from a lower elevation reservoir to a higher elevation. During discharging the elevated and stored water is released through turbines to convert the stored energy back into electricity. The turbines are reversible so they can be driven by falling water to generate electricity and then be used in reverse to pump the water back up. Although there are efficiency losses in the pumping process, the system pays for itself by selling electricity during periods of peak demand, when electricity prices are highest. Pumped storage is the largest-capacity form of grid energy storage now available.


Pumped Hydroelectric Storage
Sources: Wikipedia, Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA)
http://www.tva.gov/power/pumpstorart.htm

Energy Smart: Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES)

Like pumped hydro, CAES converts electricity into potential energy that can be drawn on when needed. During charging, off-peak, low-cost electricity is used to pump high-pressure air into an underground cavern such as a salt dome. The air is held under pressures between 1,000 and 1,500 pounds per square inch (PSI). By comparison, scuba tanks hold air at about 3,000 PSI. During discharging, plant operators bring air from the cavern back to the surface, where it is heated with natural gas, causing it to expand and rush through combustion turbines that power a generator. CAES in not solely a storage system. It is a hybrid technology that uses the compressed air to turbocharge a highly efficient natural gas turbine. The waste heat rate of a CAES plant is roughly half that of a traditional natural gas plant. The electricity created by the CAES generator can be delivered to customers at peak periods through the utility transmission and distribution network.

 

 

Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES)
Source: Sandia National Laboratories
http://www.sandia.gov/media/NewsRel/NR2001/norton.htm

September 02, 2009

Smart Grid: Peak Pricing at Peak Demand

Based on the laws of supply and demand, it is not surprising that peak prices for electricity occur at peak periods of demand. But in the power business, there are several dynamics that make peak prices not just a little higher, but 10x higher, and more in certain situations. For starters, the legacy grid cannot store electricity, so the utility must constantly guess how much power will be needed and then must deliver exactly that much to avoid over or under voltage conditions. Utilities are very good at this matching process but they can't and don't always get it right.

The current strategy for matching supply with demand is to build a certain percentage of generating capacity using gas turbines that can quickly be turned up or down as needed. These plants are quite expensive given that they are not needed very often. The classic situation is the utility that spends $250 million for a plant that is used ten days a year for a hour or two each day. You can guess that a “peaker plant” such as this is very expensive per kilowatt-hour. When we amortize the plant's expense over 10-100 hours of operation per year, we are producing very expensive electricity.

Because almost all utilities in the US charge flat rates, those extremely expensive kWh's get averaged in with the low-cost baseload kWh's and consumers never experience the true cost of peak power. If that peak power is essential, then it is worth every dollar. However, when it is used to raise idle hot water tanks from 110 to 120 degrees on hot sunny afternoons, then it is a bad deal for consumers. If enough demand on those few superpeak days can be shifted to a few hours later in the day, then the entire cost of a $250M power plant can be avoided. Everybody wins with a more intelligent system.

Peaker plants usually make up part of the utility's “spinning reserve.” Just as banks are required to have a certain percentage of cash on hand to cover unexpectedly high withdrawals, utilities are required by law to have a certain percentage of spinning reserve capacity. The plant has to be “spinning” so the generators can be switched on instantly to provide power in case of unexpectedly high demand. Spinning reserve is even worse than an idle plant because it is burning fuel and emitting CO2. Think of having your car on the driveway with its engine running for several hours per day just in case you need a quick get-away. Luckily cars start up fast enough that we don't have to go through what utilities go through every afternoon.

Large capital investments with low utilization rarely make economic sense in a free market. GTM Research (2009) estimates that the capital cost necessary to build 1 MW of demand response capacity is roughly $240,000. This is a bargain compared to the approximately $400,000 (prorated) cost to build 1 MW of a natural gas plant. Analysts have estimated that reducing peak demand can save approximately 40GW of electricity and $3 billion dollars annually.

More intelligent management of peak demand requires both technology improvements to support demand response and regulatory change so that utilities can pass through their actual cost of generation based on time of day. This will allow the market function as it should by letting consumers decide whether they want to buy power during those periods when prices go to superpeak.

Energy Smart: Operating Reserve

On the grid, operating reserve is the generating capacity available to a utility that can be used to meet demand in case a generator goes down or there is some other disruption to supply. In many systems, operating reserve is the capacity of the largest generator plus a fraction of the peak load. This provides assurance than one power station outage will not take down the entire system. Operating reserve is made up of spinning and non-spinning reserve.

Spinning reserve is the extra capacity that is immediately available by increasing the power output of generators that are already connected to the grid and synchronized. For most generators, this increase in power output is achieved by increasing the torque applied to the turbine.

Non-spinning or supplemental reserve is the extra capacity can be brought online very quickly. On the grid, this may include the power available on short notice from other system operators, or the power available by retracting capacity that is being exported to other systems, or the power available from shutting down non-essential loads under the utility's control.

Source: Wikipedia and others
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-spinning_reserve

September 01, 2009

Modeling Climate Change

Over the weekend, I attended a presentation by Dr. Eric Barron, Director of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). He gave the keynote address at the Colorado Renewable Energy Society (CRES) annual conference. He made several important points worth keeping in mind if you are unsure about the accuracy of scientific climate models. Eric began by pointing out that every credible scientist agrees about the role of CO2 as a “warming agent.” The only real disagreements are about how warm will we get, how fast will it happen, and how significant will be the impact on humanity. He wanted to address questions about the accuracy of today's climate models.

The climate models from 15 years ago have proven relatively accurate in predicting trends in global temperatures. Almost every measure that was predicted in 1995 is in line with observed records today. Dr. Barron identified these areas as examples of the accuracy of those models:

  • The stratosphere has cooled as predicted and the Earth's surface temperatures have increased as predicted.
  • The “big three” of CO2, water vapor, and melting ice caps have changed in line with predictions. Water vapor has gone up, sea levels are rising, Arctic sea ice is retreating, land-based snow cover is in decline per the model, but sea ice is disappearing faster than predicted.
  • Note that CO2 and other greenhouse gases (GHGs), the sun, and land cover change are referred to as "forcings" of the climate system. Water vapor and melting ice caps are responses to these forcings that can amplify them.  Relative to GHGs and land cover, the sun appears not to play as big of a role in transient climate change.  This is not to say that the sun is unimportant, just that changes in solar output cannot explain the long term trends in climate.
Given today's supercomputing power, model resolution is increasing. Details such as El Nino predictions are getting better, annual cycles are coming into view. Model projections are getting very realistic. They show frontal formation and movement with accurate regional views. Eric ran a simulation for us and it was breathtaking in its detail. This does not mean they can forecast the weather decades from now, it just means that the models are so good that when displayed in graphical formats, they show details that look just like the Earth's daily and seasonal weather patterns.

Besides confirming the models from 15 years ago, scientists have gone back 100 years with today's models and run them forward to today. The results have shown to accurately predict our 2009 environment with and without CO2 forcing.

Dr. Barron said that there are more than one million lines of code in current models, and that they cannot be tampered with, and cannot be gamed. Many different countries have independent models with significant differences yet all are predicting temperature increases within a reasonably narrow band. He said it is nearly inconceivable that worldwide results from different groups are getting similar results due to conspiracy or collusion.

In the United States, we are looking at an increase of at least 4-6 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of this century. Average increases could be as high as 6-12F worldwide. This will have a major impact on ecosystems. The pine beetle infestation in the Rocky Mountains is one example of the small changes taking place because winters are not as cold as in the past. Dr. Barton said that a Florida-like savanna grassland could grow all the way up into Virginia replacing much of the forest landscape in the Southeast. He concluded by saying that climate models are accurate in terms of the trend in global temperatures and getting better every year. Actual observations show that the Earth is warming much as predicted and where predictions are off, climate changes are accelerating faster than expected.